1. HNL (Croatia) · Sat, Sep 5 · 19:00 · HNK Rijeka vs NK Osijek
Likeliest: HNK Rijeka win · 70%
A 70% home win. The market says 51%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Rijeka70%51%+18
OursMarket
Draw18%28%−10
OursMarket
NK Osijek12%21%−9
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 52% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 88% | 79% | +9 |
| Double chance X2 | 31% | 49% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 72% | +10 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 85% | 71% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Rijeka
LossLossWinLossDraw
- Aug 31 · at HNK Gorica (A)0-0
- Aug 27 · v FC Midtjylland (H)1-4
- Aug 23 · v NK Istra 1961 (H)3-2
- Aug 20 · at FC Midtjylland (A)0-2
- Aug 16 · at NK Varaždin (A)0-2
NK Osijek
WinWinWinLossWin
- Aug 30 · v NK Slaven Belupo (H)3-0
- Aug 23 · at HNK Hajduk Split (A)0-4
- Aug 15 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)1-0
- Aug 8 · at NK Rudeš (A)6-1
- Aug 1 · at HNK Gorica (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | HNK Rijeka | NK Osijek |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-0-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.