Croatian Cup (Croatia) · Sun, Oct 4 · 14:00 · HNK Vukovar 1991 vs GNK Dinamo Zagreb
Likeliest: GNK Dinamo Zagreb win · 42%
A 26% draw. The market says 13%.
13 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
HNK Vukovar 199132%7%+25
OursMarket
Draw26%13%+13
OursMarket
GNK Dinamo Zagreb42%80%−38
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 72% | −17 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 49% | +7 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 20% | +38 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 93% | −25 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 87% | −13 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 43% | 8% | +35 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
HNK Vukovar 1991
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- May 22 · at Hajduk Split (A)3-6
- May 15 · v Varaždin (H)0-2
- May 8 · at Rijeka (A)0-3
- May 2 · v Osijek (H)1-0
- Apr 25 · at Slaven Koprivnica (A)2-2
GNK Dinamo Zagreb
DrawWinLossDrawWin
- Sep 20 · v NK Lokomotiva Zagreb (H)3-2
- Sep 16 · at Hapoel Be'er Sheva (A)0-0
- Sep 12 · at NK Osijek (A)2-4
- Sep 5 · v HNK Gorica (H)1-0
- Aug 29 · at NK Istra 1961 (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | HNK Vukovar 1991 | GNK Dinamo Zagreb |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.