V-League (Vietnam) · Sat, Sep 5 · 11:00 · Hồ Chí Minh City vs Hà Nội
Likeliest: Hà Nội win · 40%
A 35% home win. The market says 25%.
10 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hồ Chí Minh City35%25%+10
OursMarket
Draw25%24%0
OursMarket
Hà Nội40%51%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 56% | −5 |
| Both teams score | 53% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 49% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 75% | −10 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 33% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hồ Chí Minh City
DrawDraw
- Jun 7 · at Hà Nội (A)1-1
- May 31 · v Thể Công - Viettel (H)1-1
Hà Nội
WinWinLossDrawDraw
- Jun 7 · v Hồ Chí Minh City (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Công an TP.Hồ Chí Minh (H)1-1
- May 31 · at Hoàng Anh Gia Lai (A)1-3
- May 24 · v Nam Định (H)2-1
- May 24 · v Thép Xanh Nam Định (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Hồ Chí Minh City | Hà Nội |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | — | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | — | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | — | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | — | 70% |
| Both teams scored | — | 80% |
| Clean sheets | — | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.