V-League (Vietnam) · Mon, Oct 19 · 11:00 · Hồ Chí Minh City vs Thể Công - Viettel
Likeliest: Thể Công - Viettel win · 40%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hồ Chí Minh City29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw32%29%+2
OursMarket
Thể Công - Viettel40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 45% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 24% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 51% | 52% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 68% | 71% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.0 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hồ Chí Minh City
DrawDrawWinLossDraw
- Oct 11 · at Sông Lam Nghệ An (A)1-1
- Sep 11 · at Bắc Ninh FC (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Hà Nội (H)3-1
- Jun 7 · at Hà Nội (A)1-1
- May 31 · v Thể Công - Viettel (H)1-1
Thể Công - Viettel
WinLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 14 · at Persib Bandung (A)0-1
- Oct 8 · v Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (H)1-3
- Sep 16 · v Melbourne Victory (H)1-1
- Sep 10 · v Công An Hà Nội (H)0-1
- Sep 4 · at Trường Tươi Đồng Nai (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Hồ Chí Minh City | Thể Công - Viettel |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 10% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 5-4-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.