V-League (Vietnam) · Sun, Sep 13 · 10:00 · Hoàng Anh Gia Lai vs Hải Phòng
Likeliest: Hoàng Anh Gia Lai win · 38%
A 38% home win. The market says 30%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hoàng Anh Gia Lai38%30%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Hải Phòng35%41%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 50% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 59% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 70% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 42% | +9 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hoàng Anh Gia Lai
DrawWinLossLossLoss
- Sep 6 · at Nam Định (A)0-4
- Jun 7 · at Becamex Bình Dương (A)1-3
- Jun 7 · at Becamex Hồ Chí Minh U19 (A)1-3
- May 31 · v Hà Nội (H)3-1
- May 23 · at Đông Á Thanh Hoá (A)1-1
Hải Phòng
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 5 · v Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (H)1-4
- Jun 7 · v Thép Xanh Nam Định (H)1-1
- Jun 7 · v Nam Định (H)1-1
- May 31 · at PVF-Công An Nhân Dân (A)1-3
- May 31 · at PVF-CAND (A)1-3
| Last 10 games | Hoàng Anh Gia Lai | Hải Phòng |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 1-3-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 2.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-3-5 | 0-1-9 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.