V-League (Vietnam) · Sat, Oct 10 · 10:00 · Hoàng Anh Gia Lai vs SHB Đà Nẵng
Likeliest: SHB Đà Nẵng win · 42%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 42% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hoàng Anh Gia Lai29%31%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
SHB Đà Nẵng42%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 69% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 40% | 43% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hoàng Anh Gia Lai
WinLossLossLossLoss
- Sep 13 · v Hải Phòng (H)1-3
- Sep 6 · at Nam Định (A)0-4
- Jun 7 · at Becamex Bình Dương (A)1-3
- Jun 7 · at Becamex Hồ Chí Minh U19 (A)1-3
- May 31 · v Hà Nội (H)3-1
SHB Đà Nẵng
DrawWinWinLossWin
- Sep 11 · v Nam Định (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Đông Á Thanh Hóa (A)2-3
- Jun 7 · v Đông Á Thanh Hóa (H)4-0
- Jun 7 · v Đông Á Thanh Hoá (H)4-0
- May 31 · at Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Hoàng Anh Gia Lai | SHB Đà Nẵng |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-2-6 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.