Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sat, Oct 10 · 16:30 · Hobro vs Kolding IF
Likeliest: Kolding IF win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 57% for both teams to score. The market says 51%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hobro30%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Kolding IF40%40%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 77% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 30% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 57% | 51% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 71% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 45% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hobro
WinLossLossDrawLoss
- Sep 21 · at HB Køge (A)2-5
- Sep 11 · v Vejle (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · v Hvidovre (H)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Hillerød (A)1-3
- Aug 21 · v AaB (H)2-1
Kolding IF
DrawWinLossDrawDraw
- Sep 18 · v Hillerød (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · v FC Fredericia (H)0-0
- Sep 6 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)1-2
- Aug 29 · v AB (H)2-1
- Aug 23 · at HB Køge (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Hobro | Kolding IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-5-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 0-4-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.