Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Fri, Oct 23 · 16:00 · Hobro vs Vendsyssel FF
Likeliest: Hobro win · 38%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 59% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hobro38%41%−3
OursMarket
Draw29%27%+3
OursMarket
Vendsyssel FF33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 54% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 59% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 73% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hobro
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at FC Fredericia (A)0-3
- Oct 10 · v Kolding IF (H)1-1
- Sep 21 · at HB Køge (A)2-5
- Sep 11 · v Vejle (H)0-0
- Sep 4 · v Hvidovre (H)1-3
Vendsyssel FF
DrawLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 16 · at Kolding IF (A)1-2
- Oct 11 · v HB Køge (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · at AaB (A)2-2
- Sep 16 · v Randers FC (H)1-3
- Sep 11 · v Aarhus Fremad (H)0-0
| Last 10 games | Hobro | Vendsyssel FF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 0.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 1-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.