J2 League (Japan) · Sat, Oct 17 · 05:00 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo vs Blaublitz Akita
Likeliest: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 42%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo41%42%−1
OursMarket
Draw29%28%+2
OursMarket
Blaublitz Akita29%30%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 49% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 54% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 59% | 59% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
DrawDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 10 · at Jubilo Iwata (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Iwaki FC (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Oita Trinita (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)1-1
Blaublitz Akita
WinDrawDrawWinLoss
- Oct 11 · at Iwaki FC (A)0-1
- Oct 4 · v Sagan Tosu (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · v Albirex Niigata (H)0-0
- Sep 19 · at Shonan Bellmare (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v Tokushima Vortis (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | Blaublitz Akita |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.