J2 League (Japan) · Sun, Oct 4 · 04:00 · Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo vs Iwaki FC
Likeliest: Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo win · 39%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 39% for the home win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo39%41%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+2
OursMarket
Iwaki FC33%33%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 67% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 59% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 74% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo
LossLossDrawDrawLoss
- Sep 26 · at Tegevajaro Miyazaki (A)2-3
- Sep 19 · v Oita Trinita (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Vegalta Sendai (A)1-1
- Sep 6 · v Tochigi City FC (H)1-4
- Aug 29 · at Ventforet Kofu (A)1-2
Iwaki FC
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Sep 26 · v Vegalta Sendai (H)0-2
- Sep 19 · at Sagan Tosu (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · v Yokohama FC (H)2-0
- Sep 5 · at Tokushima Vortis (A)0-1
- Aug 29 · v Albirex Niigata (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Hokkaido Consadole Sapporo | Iwaki FC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 1-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.