2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 2 · 11:00 · Holstein Kiel vs Eintracht Braunschweig
Likeliest: Holstein Kiel win · 52%
A 52% home win. The market says 43%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Holstein Kiel52%43%+9
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−3
OursMarket
Eintracht Braunschweig23%30%−7
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 53% | −3 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 58% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 70% | +7 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 57% | −9 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 59% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Holstein Kiel
WinDrawWinWinWin
- Apr 25 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-0
- Apr 17 · v Kaiserslautern (H)3-0
- Apr 10 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · v Preußen Münster (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)3-2
Eintracht Braunschweig
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Apr 24 · at Kaiserslautern (A)2-0
- Apr 19 · v Hertha BSC (H)1-1
- Apr 12 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)1-4
- Apr 5 · v Nürnberg (H)1-1
- Mar 20 · at Hannover 96 (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Holstein Kiel | Eintracht Braunschweig |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 2-4-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.