2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Aug 14 · 16:30 · Holstein Kiel vs FC St. Pauli
Likeliest: Holstein Kiel win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 40%.
12 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Holstein Kiel51%40%+12
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
FC St. Pauli23%33%−10
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 44% | 54% | −10 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 58% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 67% | +10 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 60% | −12 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 69% | 54% | +14 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Holstein Kiel
WinWinLossLossDraw
- Aug 8 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)2-2
- May 17 · at Dynamo Dresden (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Magdeburg (H)1-3
- May 2 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)2-0
- Apr 25 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-0
FC St. Pauli
Draw
- Aug 9 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Holstein Kiel | FC St. Pauli |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | — |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | — |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | — |
| Both teams scored | 60% | — |
| Clean sheets | 40% | — |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | — |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.