2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Oct 16 · 16:30 · Holstein Kiel vs Hertha BSC
Likeliest: Hertha BSC win · 40%
Likely score: 1–2
A tight one: we make it 40% for the away win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Holstein Kiel35%37%−2
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Hertha BSC40%39%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −5 |
| Double chance 1X | 60% | 61% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 65% | 63% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 46% | 48% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.7 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Holstein Kiel
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 9 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at 1. FC Heidenheim (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)2-2
- Aug 30 · at 1. FC Magdeburg (A)0-2
Hertha BSC
WinWinWinWinWin
- Oct 11 · v SpVgg Greuther Fürth (H)2-1
- Sep 19 · at SG Dynamo Dresden (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)3-1
- Sep 6 · v 1. FC Magdeburg (H)2-1
- Aug 28 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)5-3
| Last 10 games | Holstein Kiel | Hertha BSC |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 90% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-5-3 | 6-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.