2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Fri, Apr 17 · 16:30 · Holstein Kiel vs Kaiserslautern
Likeliest: Holstein Kiel win · 40%
A 36% away win. The market says 30%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Holstein Kiel40%44%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%26%−1
OursMarket
Kaiserslautern36%30%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 60% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 64% | 70% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 56% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 74% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 59% | −7 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Holstein Kiel
LossLossWinDrawWin
- Apr 10 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · v Preußen Münster (H)0-0
- Mar 22 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)3-2
- Mar 14 · v Nürnberg (H)2-3
- Mar 7 · at Darmstadt 98 (A)0-2
Kaiserslautern
LossWinLossWinWin
- Apr 11 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-0
- Apr 4 · v Fortuna Düsseldorf (H)3-0
- Mar 21 · at Nürnberg (A)0-3
- Mar 15 · v Karlsruher SC (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at VfL Bochum 1848 (A)2-3
| Last 10 games | Holstein Kiel | Kaiserslautern |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-2-6 | 5-0-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.0 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.