2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sat, May 9 · 11:00 · Holstein Kiel vs Magdeburg
Likeliest: Holstein Kiel win · 51%
A 51% home win. The market says 31%.
19 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Holstein Kiel51%31%+19
OursMarket
Draw23%24%−1
OursMarket
Magdeburg26%45%−18
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 65% | −11 |
| Both teams score | 62% | 66% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 74% | 55% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 49% | 69% | −19 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 41% | +25 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Holstein Kiel
DrawWinWinWinWin
- May 2 · v Eintracht Braunschweig (H)2-0
- Apr 25 · at Hertha BSC (A)1-0
- Apr 17 · v Kaiserslautern (H)3-0
- Apr 10 · at Fortuna Düsseldorf (A)2-1
- Apr 5 · v Preußen Münster (H)0-0
Magdeburg
WinLossWinLossWin
- May 3 · v Hertha BSC (H)1-0
- Apr 26 · at Nürnberg (A)0-1
- Apr 18 · v Fortuna Düsseldorf (H)2-0
- Apr 12 · at Paderborn (A)3-4
- Apr 4 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Holstein Kiel | Magdeburg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-2-3 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-0-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.