2. Bundesliga (Germany) · Sun, Oct 25 · 12:30 · Holstein Kiel vs SG Dynamo Dresden
Likeliest: Holstein Kiel win · 43%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 43% for the home win. The market says 43%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Holstein Kiel43%43%−1
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
SG Dynamo Dresden32%32%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 57% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 58% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Holstein Kiel
DrawLossDrawLossDraw
- Oct 16 · v Hertha BSC (H)0-0
- Oct 9 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)0-1
- Sep 19 · v VfL Osnabrück (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at 1. FC Heidenheim (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v 1. FC Nürnberg (H)2-2
SG Dynamo Dresden
LossDrawLossDrawWin
- Oct 18 · v 1. FC Magdeburg (H)2-0
- Oct 10 · at VfL Osnabrück (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Hertha BSC (H)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Eintracht Braunschweig (A)2-2
- Sep 5 · v VfL Bochum 1848 (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | Holstein Kiel | SG Dynamo Dresden |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-5-4 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-6-2 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.