V-League (Vietnam) · Sat, Oct 17 · 11:00 · Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh vs Sông Lam Nghệ An
Likeliest: Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh win · 44%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 44% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh44%46%−2
OursMarket
Draw33%30%+3
OursMarket
Sông Lam Nghệ An23%24%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 42% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 50% | 51% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 76% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 56% | 54% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 67% | 70% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 66% | 65% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh
LossLossLossWinWin
- Oct 8 · at Thể Công - Viettel (A)3-1
- Sep 13 · v Trường Tươi Đồng Nai (H)1-0
- Sep 5 · at Công An Hà Nội (A)0-2
- Jun 7 · at Phù Đổng Ninh Bình (A)0-3
- Jun 7 · at Ninh Bình (A)0-3
Sông Lam Nghệ An
LossLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 11 · v Hồ Chí Minh City (H)1-1
- Sep 12 · at Hà Nội (A)4-1
- Sep 6 · v Bắc Ninh FC (H)1-0
- Jun 7 · v PVF-Công An Nhân Dân (H)1-3
- Jun 7 · v PVF-CAND (H)1-3
| Last 10 games | Hồng Lĩnh Hà Tĩnh | Sông Lam Nghệ An |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.7 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 20% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-1-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.