National League (England) · Sat, Oct 10 · 14:00 · Hornchurch vs Eastleigh
Likeliest: Hornchurch win · 45%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hornchurch45%46%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Eastleigh28%28%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 54% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 58% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 72% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 62% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hornchurch
LossWinLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · at Harrogate Town (A)0-3
- Sep 29 · v Aldershot Town (H)2-1
- Sep 26 · at Altrincham (A)0-3
- Sep 19 · v Scunthorpe United (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Worthing FC (A)0-1
Eastleigh
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Oct 3 · v Woking (H)1-3
- Sep 30 · v Southend United (H)1-1
- Sep 26 · at Harrogate Town (A)1-4
- Sep 19 · v Carlisle United (H)1-0
- Sep 15 · at Sutton United (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Hornchurch | Eastleigh |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-0-6 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-0-1 | 2-1-7 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.