NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 17:00 · Houston Dash vs Orlando Pride
Likeliest: Orlando Pride win · 44%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 60% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Houston Dash29%32%−3
OursMarket
Draw27%26%+1
OursMarket
Orlando Pride44%42%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 56% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 56% | 58% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 72% | 68% | +3 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 39% | 43% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Houston Dash
LossLossWinDrawLoss
- Oct 4 · v Washington Spirit (H)2-3
- Sep 27 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Boston Legacy FC (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Utah Royals FC (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Orlando Pride (A)1-3
Orlando Pride
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Oct 3 · v San Diego Wave FC (H)1-2
- Sep 27 · at Bay FC (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · v Portland Thorns FC (H)1-4
- Sep 12 · at Kansas City Current (A)2-2
- Sep 6 · v Houston Dash (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Houston Dash | Orlando Pride |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 2.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 90% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-3 | 3-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.