NWSL (USA) · Sun, Oct 4 · 23:00 · Houston Dash vs Washington Spirit
Likeliest: Washington Spirit win · 50%
We make it 55% for both teams to score. The market says 50%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Houston Dash22%24%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%24%+4
OursMarket
Washington Spirit50%52%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 55% | 50% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 50% | 48% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 78% | 76% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 72% | 76% | −4 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 31% | 32% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.9 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Houston Dash
LossLossLossWinDraw
- Sep 27 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)1-1
- Sep 20 · at Boston Legacy FC (A)2-1
- Sep 13 · v Utah Royals FC (H)0-1
- Sep 6 · at Orlando Pride (A)1-3
- Aug 30 · at Seattle Reign FC (A)0-1
Washington Spirit
WinWinLossWinLoss
- Sep 26 · v Angel City FC (H)0-1
- Sep 20 · at Chicago Stars FC (A)3-0
- Sep 13 · v Boston Legacy FC (H)0-3
- Sep 6 · at Portland Thorns FC (A)2-1
- Aug 30 · v Bay FC (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Houston Dash | Washington Spirit |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 2-1-2 | 5-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.