Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 18 · 00:30 · Houston Dynamo vs FC Dallas
Likeliest: Houston Dynamo win · 41%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 41% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Houston Dynamo41%45%−4
OursMarket
Draw29%26%+3
OursMarket
FC Dallas30%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 70% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 71% | 74% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 60% | −3 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Houston Dynamo
LossDrawLossDrawDraw
- Oct 15 · at San Diego FC (A)3-3
- Oct 11 · at Minnesota United (A)2-2
- Sep 27 · v Sporting Kansas City (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v FC Cincinnati (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at San Jose Earthquakes (A)0-1
FC Dallas
WinDrawWinLossWin
- Oct 15 · v Seattle Sounders FC (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Charlotte FC (A)2-3
- Sep 27 · v Los Angeles FC (H)1-0
- Sep 20 · v Austin FC (H)0-0
- Sep 13 · v Portland Timbers (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Houston Dynamo | FC Dallas |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-5-3 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 2.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-3-1 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.