Major League Soccer (USA) · Sun, Oct 25 · 00:30 · Houston Dynamo vs Minnesota United
Likeliest: Houston Dynamo win · 45%
Likely score: 2–1
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 45%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Houston Dynamo45%45%0
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Minnesota United29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 57% | 57% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 55% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.5 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Houston Dynamo
DrawLossDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 18 · v FC Dallas (H)2-2
- Oct 15 · at San Diego FC (A)3-3
- Oct 11 · at Minnesota United (A)2-2
- Sep 27 · v Sporting Kansas City (H)0-2
- Sep 20 · v FC Cincinnati (H)2-2
Minnesota United
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 17 · v St.Louis City (H)3-2
- Oct 15 · at Colorado Rapids (A)2-2
- Oct 11 · v Houston Dynamo (H)2-2
- Sep 27 · at Seattle Sounders FC (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v LA Galaxy (H)2-3
| Last 10 games | Houston Dynamo | Minnesota United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-6-3 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 2.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 2.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 100% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 100% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 0% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.