Primera División (Chile) · Sat, Oct 10 · 20:30 · Huachipato vs O'Higgins
Likeliest: O'Higgins win · 37%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 37% for the away win. The market says 38%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Huachipato33%34%−1
OursMarket
Draw31%28%+2
OursMarket
O'Higgins37%38%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 54% | 55% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 32% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 58% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 62% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 66% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 69% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Huachipato
LossLossDrawDrawWin
- Oct 2 · at Universidad de Concepción (A)2-0
- Sep 6 · v Colo Colo (H)0-0
- Aug 31 · at Coquimbo Unido (A)0-0
- Aug 22 · v Deportes Limache (H)1-3
- Aug 18 · at Palestino (A)1-5
O'Higgins
DrawLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 13 · at Audax Italiano (A)0-1
- Sep 6 · v Unión La Calera (H)2-1
- Sep 1 · at Universidad Católica (A)2-3
- Aug 23 · v Palestino (H)0-1
- Aug 16 · at Colo Colo (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Huachipato | O'Higgins |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-4-5 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.2 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 0-2-4 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.