League One (England) · Tue, Nov 3 · 19:45 · Huddersfield Town vs Luton Town
Likeliest: Huddersfield Town win · 46%
Likely scores: 2–1 11% · 1–1 10% · 1–2 8%
A tight one: we make it 46% for the home win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Huddersfield Town46%46%0
OursMarket
Draw26%25%+1
OursMarket
Luton Town29%29%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 64% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 59% | 65% | −6 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 71% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 54% | 54% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 61% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.6 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Huddersfield Town
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Oct 31 · at Bradford City (A)3-0
- Oct 24 · v Wigan Athletic (H)2-1
- Oct 20 · v Peterborough United (H)4-1
- Oct 17 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-2
Luton Town
LossWinWinWinWin
- Oct 31 · at Peterborough United (A)2-0
- Oct 27 · v Doncaster Rovers (H)3-1
- Oct 24 · v Leicester City (H)2-1
- Oct 20 · v Barnsley (H)2-1
- Oct 17 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-2
| Last 10 games | Huddersfield Town | Luton Town |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-2-1 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.5 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.