League One (England) · Tue, Sep 1 · 18:45 · Huddersfield Town vs Oxford United
Likeliest: Huddersfield Town win · 51%
A tight one: we make it 51% for the home win. The market says 55%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Huddersfield Town51%55%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%25%+1
OursMarket
Oxford United24%21%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 54% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 51% | 55% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 76% | 79% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 50% | 45% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 68% | 73% | −5 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Huddersfield Town
WinDrawWinDrawWin
- Aug 29 · at Cambridge United (A)2-1
- Aug 22 · at Milton Keynes Dons (A)1-1
- Aug 15 · v AFC Wimbledon (H)3-0
- Aug 8 · at Preston North End (A)1-1
- May 2 · at AFC Wimbledon (A)4-0
Oxford United
WinLossLossDrawWin
- Aug 22 · at Stevenage (A)2-1
- Aug 15 · v Milton Keynes Dons (H)2-2
- Aug 8 · at Leyton Orient (A)0-2
- May 2 · at Millwall (A)0-2
- Apr 25 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)4-1
| Last 10 games | Huddersfield Town | Oxford United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-3-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.1 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-3-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.