League One (England) · Tue, Oct 20 · 18:45 · Huddersfield Town vs Peterborough United
Likeliest: Huddersfield Town win · 64%
Likely score: 2–0
We make it 42% for under 2.5 goals. The market says 34%.
8 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Huddersfield Town64%62%+2
OursMarket
Draw20%21%−1
OursMarket
Peterborough United16%17%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 81% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 66% | −8 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 35% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 61% | 61% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 84% | 83% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 38% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 80% | 78% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 2.0 | 1.2 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Huddersfield Town
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-2
- Oct 6 · v Rochdale (H)5-0
- Oct 3 · at Burton Albion (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Bromley (A)1-2
Peterborough United
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Oct 17 · v Burton Albion (H)2-2
- Oct 10 · at Leicester City (A)3-1
- Oct 6 · v Ipswich Town U21 (H)4-1
- Sep 26 · at Stockport County (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Colchester United (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Huddersfield Town | Peterborough United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 3-4-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 3-1-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.