Football League Trophy (England) · Tue, Oct 6 · 18:00 · Huddersfield Town vs Rochdale
Likeliest: Huddersfield Town win · 58%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 72% for both teams to score. The market says 54%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Huddersfield Town58%57%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Rochdale20%21%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 89% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 52% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 72% | 54% | +18 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 79% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 43% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 2.1 | 1.8 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Huddersfield Town
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Oct 3 · at Burton Albion (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Bromley (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Mansfield Town (A)0-0
- Sep 8 · at Doncaster Rovers (A)3-1
- Sep 5 · v Notts County (H)1-1
Rochdale
DrawWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 3 · v Swindon Town (H)1-0
- Sep 26 · at Fleetwood Town (A)2-1
- Sep 22 · v Liverpool U21 (H)3-3
- Sep 19 · v Oldham Athletic (H)2-0
- Sep 12 · at Walsall (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Huddersfield Town | Rochdale |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-2-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.