League One (England) · Sat, Oct 24 · 11:30 · Huddersfield Town vs Wigan Athletic
Likeliest: Huddersfield Town win · 64%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 64% for the home win. The market says 64%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Huddersfield Town64%64%0
OursMarket
Draw21%21%+1
OursMarket
Wigan Athletic15%15%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 76% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 58% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 28% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 53% | 52% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 85% | 85% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 36% | 36% | 0 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 79% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 81% | 81% | +1 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 0.9 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Huddersfield Town
LossWinWinDrawWin
- Oct 17 · at Plymouth Argyle (A)2-0
- Oct 10 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-2
- Oct 6 · v Rochdale (H)5-0
- Oct 3 · at Burton Albion (A)3-1
- Sep 19 · at Bromley (A)1-2
Wigan Athletic
DrawLossWinLossWin
- Oct 17 · v Reading (H)1-0
- Oct 10 · at Stevenage (A)0-1
- Sep 22 · v Blackpool (H)3-2
- Sep 19 · v Wycombe Wanderers (H)0-1
- Sep 12 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Huddersfield Town | Wigan Athletic |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-6-1 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.