Premier League (England) · Sat, Sep 5 · 16:30 · Hull City vs Aston Villa
Likeliest: Hull City win · 45%
A tight one: we make it 45% for the home win. The market says 23%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City45%23%+22
OursMarket
Draw26%26%+1
OursMarket
Aston Villa28%51%−23
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 54% | −4 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 49% | +23 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 77% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 62% | 31% | +30 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Aug 29 · at Coventry City (A)1-0
- Aug 25 · at Stoke City (A)1-1
- Aug 22 · v Manchester United (H)2-0
- May 23 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
- May 11 · at Millwall (A)2-0
Aston Villa
WinWinLossLossLoss
- Aug 31 · v Arsenal (H)0-1
- Aug 23 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)0-4
- Aug 12 · at PSG (A)1-2
- May 24 · at Manchester City (A)2-1
- May 20 · at SC Freiburg (A)3-0
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 4-1-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.7 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-3-2 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.