FA Cup (England) · Sun, Jan 11 · 14:30 · Hull City vs Blackburn Rovers
Likeliest: Hull City win · 48%
A 48% home win. The market says 44%.
5 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City48%44%+5
OursMarket
Draw24%26%−2
OursMarket
Blackburn Rovers28%30%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 53% | −2 |
| Both teams score | 56% | 57% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 72% | 70% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 56% | −5 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 74% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 59% | +4 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
WinWinDrawWinLoss
- Jan 1 · v Stoke City (H)0-1
- Dec 29 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Dec 26 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-2
- Dec 20 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · at Millwall (A)3-1
Blackburn Rovers
WinDrawDrawLossDraw
- Jan 4 · v Charlton Athletic (H)2-2
- Jan 1 · v Wrexham (H)0-2
- Dec 29 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)0-0
- Dec 26 · at Middlesbrough (A)0-0
- Dec 20 · v Millwall (H)2-0
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Blackburn Rovers |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 1-6-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 20% |
| Both teams scored | 50% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 4-3-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.