Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 25 · 14:00 · Hull City vs Brentford
Likeliest: Brentford win · 58%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 58% for the away win. The market says 54%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City17%22%−4
OursMarket
Draw25%24%+1
OursMarket
Brentford58%54%+4
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 78% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 31% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 42% | 46% | −4 |
| Double chance X2 | 83% | 78% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 76% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 23% | 28% | −6 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
LossDrawLossDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · at Fulham (A)0-1
- Oct 11 · v Everton (H)2-2
- Sep 19 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
- Sep 8 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
Brentford
DrawWinWinDrawLoss
- Oct 17 · v Liverpool (H)1-2
- Oct 10 · at Aston Villa (A)2-2
- Sep 18 · v Chelsea (H)3-0
- Sep 15 · at Reading (A)2-1
- Sep 12 · at Bournemouth (A)2-2
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 4-5-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-5-1 | 2-6-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.