Championship (England) · Sat, Feb 7 · 15:01 · Hull City vs Bristol City
Likeliest: Hull City win · 58%
A 58% home win. The market says 40%.
18 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City58%40%+18
OursMarket
Draw21%28%−7
OursMarket
Bristol City21%32%−11
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 50% | +6 |
| Both teams score | 59% | 55% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 79% | 68% | +11 |
| Double chance X2 | 42% | 60% | −18 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 72% | +7 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 73% | 55% | +18 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
WinWinWinWinDraw
- Feb 3 · v Watford (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-0
- Jan 24 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
- Jan 20 · at Preston North End (A)3-0
- Jan 17 · at Southampton (A)2-1
Bristol City
WinDrawLossWinLoss
- Jan 30 · v Derby County (H)0-5
- Jan 24 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)2-0
- Jan 20 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-2
- Jan 17 · at Oxford United (A)0-0
- Jan 10 · v Watford (H)5-1
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Bristol City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-3-1 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.5 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 3-2-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.