FA Cup (England) · Fri, Feb 13 · 19:45 · Hull City vs Chelsea
Likeliest: Chelsea win · 48%
A 27% home win. The market says 10%.
17 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City27%10%+17
OursMarket
Draw24%17%+8
OursMarket
Chelsea48%73%−25
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 64% | 63% | +1 |
| Both teams score | 63% | 50% | +13 |
| Double chance 1X | 52% | 27% | +25 |
| Double chance X2 | 73% | 90% | −17 |
| Double chance 12 | 76% | 83% | −8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 36% | 12% | +24 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
WinWinWinDrawLoss
- Feb 7 · v Bristol City (H)2-3
- Feb 3 · v Watford (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-0
- Jan 24 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
- Jan 20 · at Preston North End (A)3-0
Chelsea
WinWinLossWinDraw
- Feb 10 · v Leeds United (H)2-2
- Feb 7 · at Wolverhampton Wanderers (A)3-1
- Feb 3 · at Arsenal (A)0-1
- Jan 31 · v West Ham United (H)3-2
- Jan 28 · at Napoli (A)3-2
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-3-2 | 7-1-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.