Championship (England) · Mon, Apr 6 · 19:00 · Hull City vs Coventry City
Likeliest: Hull City win · 39%
A 39% home win. The market says 23%.
15 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City39%23%+15
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Coventry City37%50%−14
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 56% | +7 |
| Both teams score | 64% | 58% | +5 |
| Double chance 1X | 63% | 50% | +13 |
| Double chance X2 | 61% | 77% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 52% | 32% | +20 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
LossWinLossWinDraw
- Apr 3 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Mar 21 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)3-1
- Mar 14 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-3
- Mar 10 · at Wrexham (A)2-1
- Mar 7 · v Millwall (H)1-3
Coventry City
WinWinLossWinWin
- Apr 3 · v Derby County (H)3-2
- Mar 21 · at Swansea City (A)3-0
- Mar 14 · v Southampton (H)1-2
- Mar 11 · v Preston North End (H)3-0
- Mar 7 · at Bristol City (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Coventry City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 8-1-1 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 2.1 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 4-2-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.