Championship (England) · Tue, Feb 24 · 19:45 · Hull City vs Derby County
Likeliest: Hull City win · 43%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
9 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City43%39%+4
OursMarket
Draw26%29%−3
OursMarket
Derby County32%32%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 47% | +9 |
| Both teams score | 57% | 53% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 69% | 68% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 57% | 61% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 74% | 71% | +3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 58% | 54% | +3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
WinDrawLossLossLoss
- Feb 21 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-3
- Feb 13 · v Chelsea (H)0-4
- Feb 7 · v Bristol City (H)2-3
- Feb 3 · v Watford (H)0-0
- Jan 31 · at Blackburn Rovers (A)1-0
Derby County
DrawWinLossWinLoss
- Feb 21 · at Watford (A)0-2
- Feb 14 · v Swansea City (H)2-0
- Feb 7 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-2
- Jan 30 · at Bristol City (A)5-0
- Jan 23 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Derby County |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-2-4 | 5-1-4 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-5 | 6-1-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.