Premier League (England) · Sun, Oct 11 · 13:00 · Hull City vs Everton
Likeliest: Everton win · 47%
Likely score: 0–1
A tight one: we make it 47% for the away win. The market says 46%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City23%26%−4
OursMarket
Draw30%28%+2
OursMarket
Everton47%46%+2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 45% | 46% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 26% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 52% | 51% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 53% | 54% | −2 |
| Double chance X2 | 77% | 74% | +4 |
| Double chance 12 | 70% | 72% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 32% | 37% | −4 |
| Expected goals | 1.0 | 1.3 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
WinDrawLossDrawLoss
- Sep 19 · at Newcastle United (A)1-2
- Sep 12 · at Chelsea (A)2-2
- Sep 8 · at Sunderland (A)0-1
- Sep 5 · v Aston Villa (H)0-0
- Aug 29 · at Coventry City (A)1-0
Everton
DrawDrawDrawWinWin
- Sep 19 · v Ipswich Town (H)1-0
- Sep 16 · v Wolverhampton (H)1-0
- Sep 12 · at Tottenham Hotspur (A)0-0
- Sep 6 · v Manchester United (H)2-2
- Aug 29 · at Bournemouth (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Everton |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-4-2 | 4-4-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 0.9 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 30% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 60% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-4-1 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.