Premier League (England) · Sat, Aug 22 · 11:30 · Hull City vs Manchester United
Likeliest: Hull City win · 45%
A 25% draw. The market says 19%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City45%11%+34
OursMarket
Draw25%19%+6
OursMarket
Manchester United30%70%−40
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 52% | 57% | −6 |
| Both teams score | 52% | 49% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 70% | 30% | +40 |
| Double chance X2 | 55% | 89% | −34 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 81% | −6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 60% | 13% | +47 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
LossWinDrawWinWin
- May 23 · v Middlesbrough (H)1-0
- May 11 · at Millwall (A)2-0
- May 8 · v Millwall (H)0-0
- May 2 · v Norwich City (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
Manchester United
WinWinDrawWinWin
- May 24 · at Brighton & Hove Albion (A)3-0
- May 17 · v Nottingham Forest (H)3-2
- May 9 · at Sunderland (A)0-0
- May 3 · v Liverpool (H)3-2
- Apr 27 · v Brentford (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.1 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.9 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 40% | 80% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-3-3 | 4-5-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.