Championship (England) · Fri, Dec 5 · 20:00 · Hull City vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Hull City win · 52%
We make it 56% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 52%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City52%31%+22
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Middlesbrough22%42%−19
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 52% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 78% | 58% | +19 |
| Double chance X2 | 48% | 69% | −22 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 42% | +28 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
LossWinLossLossWin
- Nov 29 · at Stoke City (A)2-1
- Nov 25 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Nov 22 · at Queens Park Rangers (A)2-3
- Nov 8 · v Portsmouth (H)3-2
- Nov 4 · at Derby County (A)1-2
Middlesbrough
DrawWinDrawLossWin
- Nov 29 · v Derby County (H)2-1
- Nov 25 · v Coventry City (H)2-4
- Nov 22 · at Oxford United (A)1-1
- Nov 8 · v Birmingham City (H)2-1
- Nov 4 · at Leicester City (A)1-1
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 4-3-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 70% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 5-2-3 | 3-4-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.