Championship (England) · Sat, May 23 · 00:00 · Hull City vs Middlesbrough
Likeliest: Hull City win · 48%
A tight one: we make it 48% for the home win. The market says 22%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City48%22%+26
OursMarket
Draw25%27%−2
OursMarket
Middlesbrough27%51%−24
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 47% | 47% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Double chance 1X | 73% | 49% | +24 |
| Double chance X2 | 52% | 78% | −26 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 64% | 30% | +34 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
DrawLossWinDrawWin
- May 11 · at Millwall (A)2-0
- May 8 · v Millwall (H)0-0
- May 2 · v Norwich City (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · at Leicester City (A)2-2
Middlesbrough
WinWinDrawDrawLoss
- May 12 · at Southampton (A)1-2
- May 9 · v Southampton (H)0-0
- May 2 · at Wrexham (A)2-2
- Apr 25 · v Watford (H)5-1
- Apr 22 · v Sheffield Wednesday (H)1-0
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Middlesbrough |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-5-2 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 4-4-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.