Championship (England) · Sat, Mar 7 · 12:30 · Hull City vs Millwall
Likeliest: Millwall win · 45%
We make it 63% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 47%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City33%32%+1
OursMarket
Draw22%29%−6
OursMarket
Millwall45%40%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 47% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 67% | 53% | +14 |
| Double chance 1X | 55% | 60% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 68% | 68% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 71% | +6 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 42% | 44% | −3 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
LossLossWinWinLoss
- Mar 3 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-1
- Feb 28 · at Portsmouth (A)1-0
- Feb 24 · v Derby County (H)4-2
- Feb 21 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)1-3
- Feb 13 · v Chelsea (H)0-4
Millwall
WinWinLossWinWin
- Feb 28 · at Preston North End (A)2-0
- Feb 25 · v Birmingham City (H)3-0
- Feb 21 · v Portsmouth (H)1-3
- Feb 14 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-1
- Feb 7 · at Wrexham (A)2-0
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-1-4 | 6-1-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 1.2 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 40% | 50% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-4 | 5-2-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.