Championship (England) · Fri, May 8 · 19:00 · Hull City vs Millwall
Likeliest: Hull City win · 40%
We make it 62% for over 2.5 goals. The market says 46%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City40%32%+8
OursMarket
Draw27%29%−2
OursMarket
Millwall33%39%−6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 62% | 46% | +16 |
| Both teams score | 50% | 52% | −2 |
| Double chance 1X | 67% | 61% | +6 |
| Double chance X2 | 60% | 68% | −8 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 71% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 55% | 45% | +10 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
LossDrawDrawLossWin
- May 2 · v Norwich City (H)2-1
- Apr 25 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · at Leicester City (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Sheffield United (A)1-2
Millwall
DrawWinWinDrawWin
- May 2 · v Oxford United (H)2-0
- Apr 24 · at Leicester City (A)1-1
- Apr 21 · at Stoke City (A)3-1
- Apr 18 · v Queens Park Rangers (H)2-0
- Apr 10 · at West Bromwich Albion (A)0-0
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Millwall |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-4-3 | 5-3-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.3 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 40% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 6-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.