Championship (England) · Sat, May 2 · 11:30 · Hull City vs Norwich City
Likeliest: Hull City win · 42%
A 33% away win. The market says 27%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City42%48%−6
OursMarket
Draw25%25%0
OursMarket
Norwich City33%27%+6
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% | 0 |
| Both teams score | 53% | 61% | −9 |
| Double chance 1X | 68% | 73% | −6 |
| Double chance X2 | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 12 | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 57% | 64% | −8 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
DrawLossDrawDrawLoss
- Apr 25 · at Charlton Athletic (A)1-2
- Apr 21 · at Leicester City (A)2-2
- Apr 18 · v Birmingham City (H)1-1
- Apr 11 · at Sheffield United (A)1-2
- Apr 6 · v Coventry City (H)0-0
Norwich City
WinLossWinWinDraw
- Apr 25 · v Swansea City (H)1-1
- Apr 21 · v Derby County (H)2-1
- Apr 18 · at Bristol City (A)4-2
- Apr 11 · v Ipswich Town (H)0-2
- Apr 6 · at Millwall (A)2-1
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Norwich City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-4-4 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.2 | 1.5 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 40% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-3-4 | 7-0-3 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.