Championship (England) · Thu, Jan 1 · 15:00 · Hull City vs Stoke City
Likeliest: Hull City win · 56%
A 56% home win. The market says 39%.
16 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hull City56%39%+16
OursMarket
Draw21%29%−8
OursMarket
Stoke City24%32%−8
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 goals | 59% | 46% | +13 |
| Both teams score | 58% | 52% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 77% | 68% | +8 |
| Double chance X2 | 45% | 61% | −16 |
| Double chance 12 | 79% | 71% | +8 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 70% | 55% | +15 |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hull City
WinWinWinDrawWin
- Dec 29 · at Middlesbrough (A)1-0
- Dec 26 · at Sheffield Wednesday (A)2-2
- Dec 20 · v West Bromwich Albion (H)1-0
- Dec 13 · at Millwall (A)3-1
- Dec 10 · v Wrexham (H)2-0
Stoke City
LossWinLossDrawLoss
- Dec 29 · v Sheffield United (H)1-2
- Dec 26 · v Preston North End (H)0-0
- Dec 20 · at Watford (A)0-1
- Dec 13 · v Swansea City (H)2-1
- Dec 10 · at Ipswich Town (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | Hull City | Stoke City |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 6-1-3 | 2-1-7 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.7 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.5 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 40% |
| Clean sheets | 30% | 20% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 6-2-2 | 2-2-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.