Liga Profesional de Fútbol (Argentina) · Thu, Oct 15 · 23:00 · Huracán vs Gimnasia y Esgrima
Likeliest: Huracán win · 37%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 37% for the home win. The market says 39%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Huracán37%39%−2
OursMarket
Draw34%32%+3
OursMarket
Gimnasia y Esgrima29%30%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 67% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 37% | 38% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 20% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 45% | +3 |
| Double chance 1X | 71% | 70% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 64% | 61% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 66% | 68% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 56% | 57% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.3 | 1.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Huracán
DrawWinWinWinDraw
- Oct 10 · at Barracas Central (A)0-0
- Oct 4 · v Aldosivi (H)1-0
- Sep 19 · at River Plate (A)2-1
- Sep 14 · v Racing Club (H)2-1
- Sep 4 · at Belgrano (A)1-1
Gimnasia y Esgrima
WinDrawDrawDrawDraw
- Oct 9 · v Atlético Tucumán (H)1-1
- Oct 3 · at Independiente Rivadavia (A)1-1
- Sep 19 · v Banfield (H)2-2
- Sep 13 · at Argentinos Juniors (A)1-1
- Sep 5 · v Tigre (H)2-1
| Last 10 games | Huracán | Gimnasia y Esgrima |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-5-1 | 3-5-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 0.6 | 1.5 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 20% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 80% |
| Clean sheets | 50% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-4-2 | 2-3-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.