Danish 1st Division (Denmark) · Sun, Oct 18 · 11:00 · Hvidovre vs Hillerød
Likeliest: Hvidovre win · 57%
Likely score: 2–1
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 58%.
4 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Hvidovre57%55%+1
OursMarket
Draw23%23%0
OursMarket
Hillerød20%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 58% | 61% | −3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 58% | +4 |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 43% | 45% | −1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 77% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 74% | 72% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.8 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Hvidovre
WinWinDrawWinWin
- Oct 9 · at Vejle (A)2-1
- Sep 19 · at Aarhus Fremad (A)3-1
- Sep 12 · v AaB (H)2-2
- Sep 4 · at Hobro (A)3-1
- Aug 30 · v FC Fredericia (H)2-1
Hillerød
WinDrawWinDrawLoss
- Oct 10 · v FC Fredericia (H)0-2
- Sep 18 · at Kolding IF (A)1-1
- Sep 12 · v AB (H)1-0
- Sep 4 · at HB Køge (A)1-1
- Aug 30 · v Hobro (H)3-1
| Last 10 games | Hvidovre | Hillerød |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 7-3-0 | 2-3-5 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.0 | 1.3 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 70% | 30% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 20% | 10% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-5-2 | 1-4-5 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.