Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 24 · 14:00 · ÍA Akranes vs Keflavík IF
Likeliest: ÍA Akranes win · 62%
Likely score: 3–1
A tight one: we make it 62% for the home win. The market says 58%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ÍA Akranes62%58%+4
OursMarket
Draw18%20%−2
OursMarket
Keflavík IF20%22%−1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 75% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 53% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 71% | — | — |
| Double chance 1X | 80% | 78% | +1 |
| Double chance X2 | 38% | 42% | −4 |
| Double chance 12 | 82% | 80% | +2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 75% | 73% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 3.2 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ÍA Akranes
WinLossWinDrawWin
- Oct 18 · at Fram Reykjavík (A)4-2
- Oct 11 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)2-2
- Sep 20 · v Breidablik Kópavogur (H)4-1
- Sep 13 · at KR Reykjavík (A)1-5
- Sep 6 · v KR Reykjavík (H)3-1
Keflavík IF
LossLossDrawLossLoss
- Oct 17 · v KR Reykjavík (H)2-3
- Oct 11 · at Breidablik Kópavogur (A)1-3
- Sep 20 · v Fram Reykjavík (H)2-2
- Sep 14 · at Víkingur Reykjavík (A)1-4
- Sep 5 · v Valur Reykjavík (H)1-2
| Last 10 games | ÍA Akranes | Keflavík IF |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 5-4-1 | 3-1-6 |
| Goals scored a game | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.7 | 1.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 70% |
| Both teams scored | 90% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 4-2-0 | 1-0-6 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.