Besta deild karla (Iceland) · Sat, Oct 17 · 14:00 · ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar vs FH Hafnarfjörður
Likeliest: ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar win · 38%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 38% for the home win. The market says 40%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar38%40%−1
OursMarket
Draw27%25%+2
OursMarket
FH Hafnarfjörður35%35%0
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 80% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 65% | 65% | +1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 34% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 66% | −7 |
| Double chance 1X | 65% | 65% | 0 |
| Double chance X2 | 62% | 60% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 75% | −2 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 53% | 53% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 0.7 | 1.4 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar
DrawLossDrawLossWin
- Oct 16 · v FH Hafnarfjörður (H)3-1
- Oct 10 · at Þór Akureyri (A)0-1
- Sep 20 · v Valur Reykjavík (H)1-1
- Sep 13 · at Stjarnan Garðabær (A)0-2
- Sep 6 · at Stjarnan Garðabær (A)2-2
FH Hafnarfjörður
LossWinWinWinLoss
- Oct 16 · at ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar (A)1-3
- Oct 10 · at Valur Reykjavík (A)3-0
- Sep 20 · v Stjarnan Garðabær (H)5-2
- Sep 13 · v KA Akureyri (H)3-0
- Sep 6 · at Þór Akureyri (A)0-1
| Last 10 games | ÍBV Vestmannaeyjar | FH Hafnarfjörður |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 1-3-6 | 5-2-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.6 | 1.3 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 60% |
| Both teams scored | 60% | 60% |
| Clean sheets | 0% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 1-2-3 | 2-2-2 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.