UEFA Nations League · Sat, Oct 3 · 16:00 · Iceland vs Bulgaria
Likeliest: Iceland win · 67%
Likely score: 1–0
A tight one: we make it 67% for the home win. The market says 65%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
Iceland67%65%+2
OursMarket
Draw22%22%0
OursMarket
Bulgaria11%13%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 72% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 49% | 46% | +2 |
| Double chance 1X | 89% | 87% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 33% | 35% | −2 |
| Double chance 12 | 78% | 78% | 0 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 86% | 83% | +2 |
| Expected goals | 1.2 | 1.5 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
Iceland
DrawLossLossDrawWin
- Sep 29 · at Luxembourg (A)3-0
- Sep 26 · v Estonia (H)1-1
- Jun 10 · at Argentina (A)0-3
- May 31 · at Japan (A)0-1
- Mar 31 · at Haiti (A)1-1
Bulgaria
WinLossDrawLossDraw
- Sep 29 · v Estonia (H)0-0
- Sep 26 · v Luxembourg (H)1-2
- Jun 5 · at Moldova (A)2-2
- Jun 1 · v Montenegro (H)0-1
- Mar 30 · at Indonesia (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | Iceland | Bulgaria |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 2-3-5 | 2-5-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.0 | 1.7 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.4 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 60% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 40% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | — | 2-3-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.