Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Fri, Oct 16 · 17:00 · IF Brommapojkarna vs Djurgården
Likeliest: Djurgården win · 62%
Likely score: 1–2
We make it 62% for both teams to score. The market says 56%.
6 points apart — enough for us to flag it. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IF Brommapojkarna14%16%−1
OursMarket
Draw23%20%+3
OursMarket
Djurgården62%64%−2
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 83% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 63% | 64% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 39% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 62% | 56% | +6 |
| Double chance 1X | 38% | 36% | +2 |
| Double chance X2 | 86% | 84% | +1 |
| Double chance 12 | 77% | 80% | −3 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 19% | 20% | −1 |
| Expected goals | 1.1 | 2.1 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IF Brommapojkarna
LossWinLossLossWin
- Oct 10 · at AIK (A)6-5
- Sep 19 · v Göteborg (H)0-1
- Sep 13 · at Hammarby (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v IF Elfsborg (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at GAIS (A)0-4
Djurgården
WinWinWinLossWin
- Oct 11 · at Hammarby (A)1-0
- Sep 20 · v IF Elfsborg (H)1-2
- Sep 14 · v GAIS (H)2-0
- Sep 10 · at IFK Haninge (A)7-1
- Sep 7 · at Kalmar (A)1-0
| Last 10 games | IF Brommapojkarna | Djurgården |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 4-1-5 | 7-0-3 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Goals conceded a game | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 70% | 30% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 60% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-3 | 8-1-1 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.