Allsvenskan (Sweden) · Sat, Sep 19 · 13:00 · IF Brommapojkarna vs Göteborg
Likeliest: Göteborg win · 43%
A tight one: we make it 43% for the away win. The market says 41%.
Nothing here separates us from the market by four points or more, so there is no spot on this match. Our numbers are graded against the closing line every night.
Who wins
IF Brommapojkarna30%32%−2
OursMarket
Draw28%26%+1
OursMarket
Göteborg43%41%+1
OursMarket
Purple means we differ from the market by 4 points or more. Market = bookmakers' prices with the margin removed.
| Market | Ours | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 82% | — | — |
| Over 2.5 goals | 56% | 56% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 37% | — | — |
| Both teams score | 60% | 59% | +1 |
| Double chance 1X | 58% | 59% | −1 |
| Double chance X2 | 70% | 68% | +2 |
| Double chance 12 | 73% | 74% | −1 |
| Draw no bet (home) | 41% | 44% | −2 |
| Expected goals | 1.4 | 1.6 | H · A |
Double chance and draw no bet are the win, draw and loss numbers added up, not separate models. A line nobody has priced shows “—”.
Form
IF Brommapojkarna
WinLossLossWinLoss
- Sep 13 · at Hammarby (A)1-3
- Sep 6 · v IF Elfsborg (H)2-1
- Aug 31 · at GAIS (A)0-4
- Aug 27 · at Falu BS FK (A)1-2
- Aug 23 · v Degerfors IF (H)2-0
Göteborg
DrawWinWinWinWin
- Sep 12 · v Halmstads BK (H)2-1
- Sep 7 · at Mjällby (A)4-1
- Sep 2 · at BK Olympic (A)5-0
- Aug 30 · v Örgryte IS (H)1-0
- Aug 23 · v IF Elfsborg (H)1-1
| Last 10 games | IF Brommapojkarna | Göteborg |
|---|---|---|
| Won-drawn-lost | 3-2-5 | 6-2-2 |
| Goals scored a game | 1.4 | 1.9 |
| Goals conceded a game | 1.8 | 1.0 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 80% | 50% |
| Both teams scored | 80% | 50% |
| Clean sheets | 10% | 30% |
| Last 10 at this venue | 3-2-2 | 5-1-4 |
Counted from their results in all competitions, not modelled. Our probability for this match is at the top of the page.